介绍一种基于统计学原理,利用靶试、靶训和作战使用等使用数据研究预测和评定制导弹药可靠贮存寿命的方法。采用几种可能分布模型,利用极小x²法拟合,根据拟合优度和工程实际综合确定失效分布,用广义二项近似法计算贮存寿命置信下限。实例研究表明,该套方法实用可行,结论可信。

Based on statistic theory and data of control and guided munitions used in target shooting, training and fighting, a new reliable storage life estimation and forecast method of guided munitions has been raised in this paper, The new method uses several kinds of random distribution models and chi-square distribution to approach the failure distribution according to its fitting and practical engineering. It also uses generalized binomial approximation method to calculate the lower limit of storage life, the simulation result shows that the new method is practicable and can get a trustable conclusion.