针对传统飞行试验在精度分析中的局限性,文中对比分析了目前常用的几种精度分析方法,介绍了蒙特卡罗法在潜空导弹射击精度分析中的应用,给出较完整的精度分析过程,通过潜空导弹飞行仿真数学模型的建立、误差源分析以及数学概率模型的建立,进行了潜空导弹模拟打靶,并运用格拉布斯检验法判断和处理弹着点数据的异常值,最终对仿真试验结果进行了统计分析。

According to the limitation of traditional flight test, Monte Carlo simulation method is presented for precision analysis through comparative analysis of the main precision analysis methods. Based on some submarine-to-air missile, full step of precision is introduced. By building the flight simulation mathematical model of submarine-to-air missile system, analyzing the error and building the mathematical probability model, the simulation target practice of submarine-to-air missile is done with Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, Grubbs test is used to judge and handle the data of impact points. And the statistical analysis of simulation result is given at last.