为准确预测航空弹药平时消耗量,根据历史消耗数据,对其进行多元线性回归预测、灰色预测、并联及串联灰色多元线性回归预测,取得了良好的预测效果。对比各个模型得到的结果,并联型模型能综合多种因素,预测具有非劣性;串联模型能降低原始数据的随机性,提高模型预测精度,预测精度高,可用于实际预测,对航空弹药平时订货有一定的参考作用。

In order to forecast peacetime aviation ammunition consumption precisely, according to former consumption data, bench mark forecast was made. Multivariable linear regression forecast model, grey forecast model, shunt wound and series wound grey multivariable liner regression models were given. The result of each model had been tested. The series wound model can reduce the randomness of original data and improve forecasting precision;The shunt-wound model can integrate many factors and has a useful value. The series wound model has the most precise forecast value; it can be used for practical forecast and aviation ammunition peacetime indent.