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弹箭与制导学报 >

2024 , Vol. 44 >Issue 6: 28 - 36

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2024.06.004

基于蒙特卡洛法的破片打击无人机易损性分析

  • 王大禹 1 ,
  • 郭磊 1 ,
  • 孙志超 1 ,
  • 何源 1 ,
  • 王传婷 1 ,
  • 何勇 1 ,
  • 秦光泉 2 ,
  • 李勇 2
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  • 1 南京理工大学机械工程学院,江苏 南京 210094
  • 2 长安望江工业集团有限公司,重庆 401120
郭磊(1988—),男,副教授,博士,研究方向:毁伤机理与终点效应,活性毁伤元件。

王大禹(1998—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:毁伤评估。

收稿日期: 2024-09-19

  网络出版日期: 2025-02-10

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(U2241285)

收起

The Vulnerability Analysis of UAVs Under Fragment Strikes Based on Monte Carlo Method

  • WANG Dayu 1 ,
  • GUO Lei 1 ,
  • SUN Zhichao 1 ,
  • HE Yuan 1 ,
  • WANG Chuanting 1 ,
  • HE Yong 1 ,
  • QIN Guangquan 2 ,
  • LI Yong 2
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  • 1 School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu,China
  • 2 Chang’an Wangjiang Industrial Group Limited Company, Chongqing 401120,China

Received date: 2024-09-19

  Online published: 2025-02-10

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摘要

为研究低小慢无人机在破片打击下的毁伤效能,建立了破片对无人机毁伤效能的评估模型。通过数值模拟分析单枚破片在不同初速、直径和材料条件下对目标各个舱段的毁伤概率,并采用蒙特卡洛法进行了多次射击仿真。研究结果表明,破片的初速、直径和材料对毁伤概率有显著影响,其中初速和直径的增加显著提升了毁伤概率,但在900~1 500m/s的速度范围和4~8 mm的大直径条件下,效能提升趋于饱和。而多枚破片的打击显著提高了毁伤概率,表明在破片数量增加的情况下,毁伤效能大幅提升,使破片数量成为影响毁伤效果的关键因素。基于研究结果,选择2~4 mm的破片直径、600~900 m/s的初速以及适当的材料,可以优化破片战斗部的设计,从而提升其对无人机的毁伤效能,为无人机毁伤效能的精准评估和作战决策提供科学依据。

关键词： 低小慢无人机; 毁伤效能评估; 蒙特卡洛方法; 破片打击; 数值模拟

本文引用格式

王大禹 , 郭磊 , 孙志超 , 何源 , 王传婷 , 何勇 , 秦光泉 , 李勇 . 基于蒙特卡洛法的破片打击无人机易损性分析[J]. 弹箭与制导学报, 2024 , 44(6) : 28 -36 . DOI: 10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2024.06.004

Abstract

To investigate the damage effectiveness of low, slow and small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) under fragmentation strikes, an evaluation model is established to comprehensively assess the damage effectiveness of fragments against UAVs. Numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the damage probability of a single fragment impacting various UAV compartments under different initial velocities, diameters, and material conditions, followed by extensive shooting simulations using the Monte Carlo method, with thousands of iterations to ensure statistical robustness. The results indicate that the initial velocity, diameter, and material of the fragment significantly influence the damage probability. An increase in initial velocity and diameter notably enhances the damage probability; however, the effectiveness tends to saturate within the velocity range of 900~1 500 m/s and diameter range of 4~8 mm, showing diminishing returns beyond these thresholds. The use of multiple fragments significantly increases the damage probability, suggesting that an increase in the number of fragments leads to a substantial improvement in damage effectiveness, making the quantity of fragments a crucial factor in determining the overall damage outcomes. Based on these findings, selecting fragment diameters between 2 mm and 4 mm, initial velocities between 600 m/s and 900 m/s, and appropriate materials can optimize the design of fragmentation warheads, thereby significantly enhancing their damage effectiveness against UAVs. This study provides a scientific basis for the precise evaluation of UAV damage effectiveness, offering valuable insights for the development of more effective countermeasures and supporting informed decision-making in combat scenarios to ensure enhanced operational effectiveness and strategic advantages.

Key words： low slow and small UAV; damage effectiveness evaluation; Monte Carlo method; fragment strike; numerical simulation

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