针对目前反导毁伤评估工作存在可信度不足的问题。通过向半实物系统注入外部拟合的姿态信息来复现导弹的飞行过程,从而在真实的弹目交会条件下实现毁伤评估工作可信度的有效提升。首先通过半实物仿真系统的弹道拟合,给出导弹模型在目标相对坐标系下的运动方程,然后根据制导误差分布概率、引信启动区分布概率和战斗部条件毁伤概率的经验计算公式,结合半实物弹目交会工况,归纳出了综合毁伤概率的确定方法,最后通过具体的实例进行了仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行参数特性分析和毁伤等级划分。研究结果表明,所建立的弹目交会距离、破片入射方位角与毁伤结果关系,以及毁伤效能评定表可在一定程度上预测该拦截弹的拦截结果,为后续军事作战决策提供支持和参考。

At present, scholars carry out anti-missile damage assessment work basically simplifies the assessment model and assumes the derivation conditions, which has the problem of insufficient credibility. It is an effective means to enhance the credibility by injecting external fitted attitude information into the semi-physical system to reproduce the flight process of the missile, so as to carry out the damage assessment under the real ballistic rendezvous conditions. In this paper, firstly, the equations of motion of the missile model in the relative coordinate system of the target are given through the ballistic fitting of the semi-physical simulation system, and then according to the empirical formulas of the probability of the distribution of the guidance error, the probability of the distribution of the fuse activation zone and the probability of the destruction of the combat unit, combined with the semi-physical projectile-eye rendezvous conditions, the method of the determination of the integrated probability of the destruction is given. Finally, this paper carries out simulation calculations for specific examples, and analyzes the parameter characteristics and damage classifications of the simulation results. The results show that the relationship between the distance of the meeting and the azimuth angle of the fragmentation incident and the damage result, and the established damage evaluation table can predict the interception result of the interceptor to a certain extent, which can provide support and reference for the subsequent military operational decision-making.