图像自寻的火箭弹目标捕获概率的计算与分析是其作战效能分析的重要内容。为了准确计算捕获概率,结合火箭弹弹道特点及探测设备性能,依据命中误差理论和约翰斯顿(Johnson)准则等,建立了基于火箭弹落入有效可导幅员的概率与导引头对目标识别概率的导引头捕获概率数学模型;根据模型分析了探测高度、诸元误差、目标幅员及目标运动速度等因素对捕获概率的影响,取得了一些有意义的结论,为该弹种作战使用提供了重要参考。

The calculation and analysis of the target acquisition probability of image homing rocket is an important part of its combat effectiveness analysis. In order to calculate the acquisition probability accurately, combined with the characteristics of ballistic and the performance of detection equipment, the mathematical model of acquisition probability was established based on hit error theory and Johnston standards, etc The mathematical model includes the probability model of rockets falling into the guided area and the probability model of seeker identifying target. Based on the model the influence factors (including detection height firing data error target size and speed of target motion and so on) of target acquisition probability were analyzed, and some meaningful conclusions were extracted. The conclusions could be applied in the future fight as an important reference.