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弹箭与制导学报 >

2012 , Vol. 32 >Issue 1: 45 - 48

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2012.01.035

导弹与制导技术

地空导弹生存能力预测模型的构建与应用

  • 解武杰 ,
  • 王瑛 ,
  • 申卯兴 ,
  • 张天明
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  • 1 空军工程大学工程学院,西安 710038
    2 第二炮兵工程学院,西安 710025
    3 空军工程大学导弹学院,陕西三原 713800

解武杰(1967-)男,陕西韩城人,副教授,研究方向:系统工程。

收稿日期: 2011-03-05

  网络出版日期: 2025-05-29

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(60304004/F030101)

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The Modeling and Application of Surface-to-air Missile Survivability Prediction Model

  • XIE Wujie ,
  • WANG Ying ,
  • SHEN Maoxing ,
  • ZHANG Tianming
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  • 1 The Engineering Institute, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China
    2 The Second Artillery Engineering College, Xi'an 710025, China
    3 The Missile Institute, Air Force Engineering University, Shaanxi Sanyuan 713800,China

Received date: 2011-03-05

  Online published: 2025-05-29

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摘要

为实现对地空导弹生存能力的科学预测,构建了基于生存能力需求分析的评价指标。分别采用BP-GDM模型、BP-LM模型和GA-BP-LM模型对数据进行了训练和预测,仿真结果表明:BP-GDM模型预测精度最差,仿真耗时较长,GA-BP-LM模型预测精度较高,耗时最短,BP-LM模型居中。此外GA-BP-LM模型相对误差值波动幅度最小,平均相对误差仅为3.33%,达到了预测的精度要求。

关键词： 地空导弹; BP-LM模型; GA-BP-LM模型; 生存能力; 预测

本文引用格式

解武杰 , 王瑛 , 申卯兴 , 张天明 . 地空导弹生存能力预测模型的构建与应用[J]. 弹箭与制导学报, 2012 , 32(1) : 45 -48 . DOI: 10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2012.01.035

Abstract

In order to scientifically predict the surface-to-air missile's survivability, the evaluation index was established based on the survivability demand analysis. The BP-LM model and GA-BP-LM model were used to train and predict data. The simulation result shows that the forecast precision of BP-GDM model is the worst and much simulation time was consumed, the GA-BP-LM gains the best forecast precision and costs the least time, BP-LM is moderate. Furthermore, the GA-BP-LM model has the smallest opposite error fluctuation, and the average opposite error value is only 3.33%, which matches well with the expected requirement.

Key words： surface to air missile; BP-LM model; GA-BP-LM model; survivability; prediction

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