针对导弹推进系统的贮存环境恶劣严酷,特别是对结构可靠性要求较高的实际,提出导弹推进系统寿命预测原理,采用修正的Arrhenius方法和GM-BP组合方法,分别建立了发动机装药寿命预估和推进系统贮存寿命预测模型。在此基础上,开发了导弹推进系统贮存寿命预测软件,并进行实例仿真,验证了模型的有效性。依据仿真结果,工程技术人员可以发现潜在的故障模式,制定出相应的贮存期维修检测计划与策略,提高贮存可靠性,延长其寿命。

In view of the atrocious storage environment of missile propulsion system, especially the higher requirement for structural reliability, the propulsion system life prediction principle was proposed based on the correct Arrhenius and GM-BP methods. The engine life estimation and the propulsion system store life prediction model were founded. Finally, the life prediction software system was developed, and a simulation example was given, showing the effectiveness of prediction model. According to results, engineers can find the potential trouble model and make right maintenance plan to raise the storage reliability and extend its storage life and so on.