为深入研究反导决策的机理和方法,对导弹防御作战中威胁识别结果、落点预报以及拦截器拦截概率的不确定性进行了分析和建模,构建了不确定条件下拦截器对来袭目标分配的规划模型,所建模型与反导作战实际密切相关。针对拦截概率置信水平的两种不同情况,分别将问题转化为带区间参数的非线性规划模型以及三种机会约束规划模型并利用混合智能算法进行求解。

For further studying on the decision mechanism and methods of anti-missile, uncertainties of threat identification results, impact-point prediction and interception probability were analyzed and corresponding models were constructed, and the interceptor-target allocation programming model under uncertainty was presented. The model is closely related to factual anti-missile fighting. For the two case of the confidence level of interception probability, the interceptor-target allocation model was respectively transformed into a nonlinear programming with interval parameter and three types of chance constraint programming model which were solved by hybrid intelligent algorithms.