为研究单发子弹失效概率和子弹发数对水下连续爆炸子弹群连发失效概率的影响,分别用概率理论和蒙特卡罗法进行了理论分析与仿真。结果表明:子弹群连发失效概率受单发子弹失效概率的影响很大且随子弹发数增加呈线性增加,针对300~500发的子弹群,单发失效概率为0.5%~4%时,出现2发及2发以上连续失效的概率为0.74%~53.44%,出现3发及3发以上连续失效的概率为0.00318%~3.03%,出现4发及4发以上连续失效的概率几乎为0。

In order to research on the influence of single submunition failure probability and the number of submunition on successive failure probability of underwater continuous explosion submunition group, theoretical analysis and simulation were conducted by probability theory and Monte-Carlo method. The results show that single submunition failure probability has great effect on successive failure probability of submunition group. With increase of submunition number, the successive failure probability of explosion submunition group will increase linearly. In view of groups with the submunition number 300 to 500, the appearance probability of 2 and more successive failure is 0.74% to 53.44%, the appearance probability of 3 and more successive failure is 0.00318% to 3.03% and the appearance probability of 4 and more successive failure tends to be 0 when single failure probability is 0.5% to 4%.