研究了某型迫击炮弹基本药管发射安全性的评估方法。分析了迫击炮弹尾管炸裂原因,建立了一种预测迫击炮弹尾管炸裂发生概率的方法,通过统计推断出其低温最大尾管压服从正态分布,计算了尾管炸裂概率。结果表明该迫击炮弹尾管炸裂概率较大,通过改进基本药管,消除了尾管炸裂隐患。建立的尾管炸裂概率预测方法可用于迫击炮弹基本药管的发射安全性分析。

A method for evaluating the launch safety of ignition cartridge of a mortar bomb was studied. The cause of tail tube burst was analyzed. A method forecasting the probability of tail tube burst was established. On the basis of test results of maximum tail tube pressure, it was deduced that the distribution of maximal tail tube pressure at low temperature was consistent with normal distribution, and the probability of tail tube burst was calculated. The result shows that the probability of tail tube burst is very big, and this problem can be overcome by improvement. The forecasting method can be used to analyze the launch safety of ignition cartridge of mortar bomb.