为了解决某导弹部件的可靠性评估中的不确定性,提出了一种基于Copula函数的非线性退化模型。其中,如何解决导弹部件退化过程中的多性能参量问题至关重要,首先建立了基于Wiener过程的单性能退化模型;然后利用Copula函数进行相关性分析,并建立多性能退化模型;最后选取光纤陀螺仪作为实例,计算其退化过程的可靠度曲线,通过与真实评估结果及传统方法对比,文中方法更加接近真实结果。证明了所提出的方法能够更加合理的描述导弹部件的非线性退化过程,提高了评估结果的可信度。

To solve the uncertainty about reliability evaluation of missile components, a nonlinear degradation model based on Copula function was proposed in the work. However, how to solve multi-performance parameters during the degradation of missile components as the nonlinear degradation model is an essential problem. Firstly, a single performance degradation model based on Wiener process was chose. Then, the Copula function is used to analyze the correlation and establish a multi-performance degradation model. Finally, the fiber optic gyroscope is selected as an example to calculate the reliability curve. Compared with the real evaluation results and the traditional methods, this method is closer to the real result. It is proved that the proposed method can describe the nonlinear degradation process of missile components more reasonably and improve the credibility of the evaluation results.