针对导弹整体式头罩分离运动过程,为了获得不同工况下头罩分离轨迹的可靠度,采用最小二乘方法拟合罩体运动轨迹曲线,通过多元线性回归方法建立拟合参数与飞行状态参数间关系;建立了安全边界方程,利用蒙特卡洛方法计算罩体运动轨迹的可靠度;考察了罩体运动过程中各随机变量变异系数对可靠度的影响;获得了整体式头罩分离运动的可靠性基本规律,为头罩分离机构设计和可靠性分析提供技术参考和有效方法。

As for separation process of integral nose cap of a missile, the separation trajectory of the cap was fitted by least square method and the relation between fitting parameters to process the reliability analysis. Flight properties were built by the multiple linear regression analysis method. Based on the safety margin equation, the reliability of separation trajectory of the cap was evaluated by Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, random variables were perturbed for analyzing the effects on the reliability. As effective methods and technical references, some basic laws on separation trajectory of the cap were presented for designing the cap separation mechanism and analyzing the reliability of separation process.