为了实时解算可信度较高的反舰导弹突防概率,以反舰导弹突击舰艇硬防御系统为军事背景,采用伴随技术,在深入分析舰艇反导硬防御体系并对其建模的基础上,着重研究了反舰导弹和舰空导弹的攻防对抗过程,得到了反舰导弹突防概率的解析解。该方法不仅能保证突防概率解算的快速性,而且能体现出攻防态势、反舰导弹末端机动策略以及拦截方武器系统性能等因素对反舰导弹突防效能的影响。

In order to get the reliable and real-time penetration probability for anti-ship missile, the paper took the warfare of anti-missile to warship’s solid defense system as the military background, adopting the adjoint technique, the model was built for anti-missile defense system of warship, and the paper put great emphasis on studying the attack-defense countermine course of anti-ship missile to ship-air missile, the analytic model of the penetration probability was ultimately gained for anti-ship missile. The arithmetic is not only capable of satisfying the needs of missile real time program but also can embody the influence of attack-defense situation,terminal maneuver tactic for anti-ship missile,performance of enemy warship’s weapon system and so on to anti-ship missile’s penetration efficiency.