由于水声干扰子弹试验现场缺乏必要的可靠性数据,传统故障树分析法无法对系统可靠性进行分析。为了研究该子弹的可靠性,文中利用模糊故障树分析法,结合现场专家评估,获得了各个基本事件的模糊故障概率,并得到试验子弹失效概率,与试验现场子弹失效概率比较一致。通过对基本事件概率重要度分析,能有效地对较大安全隐患引起足够重视,对该子弹后续研究提供一定的方便。

Due to the lack of reliable date obtained from real test scenario of acoustic interference shrapnel, the traditional fault tree method cannot be used to evaluate the safety of system. In order to study the reliability of the shrapnel, the fuzzy fault-tree analysis method was used to calculate the failure probability of each basic event with expert judgment. The failure probability of shrapnel was obtained, the result agreed well with the experiment one. More attention may be paid to the potential danger after the analysis of the priority of the basic events, and can be of reference to the later work.