针对弹道导弹威胁评估涉及不确定性因素众多且定性与定量分析复杂的问题,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法的弹道导弹威胁评估方法。该方法以层次分析法处理流程为主体,将模糊原理应用到判断矩阵的构建和权重的排序中,主要包括satty的1~9模糊标度法、三角模糊原理,同时采用多位专家打分标度的方式,减少各个影响因素的不确定性。最后,通过仿真实例进行了验证,仿真结果表明模糊层次分析法解决此类问题的合理性和有效性。

To solve the problem of ballistic missile threaten assessment, which involved a mass of uncertain factors, the complicated qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper put forward a fuzzy analytic hierachy process to assess ballistic missile threat. This method was based on analytic hierachy process as the main body, and the fuzzy principle was applied to determine the weight matrix construction and scheduling, mainly including the satty 1~9 fuzzy scale method, triangular fuzzy principle. At the same time, the multiple experts scoring scale was used to reduce the uncertainty of the various factors. At last, this method was verified by simulation example, and the reason-ability and validity of fuzzy analytic hierachy process were manifested.