结合某反跑道末敏子弹药参数分析工作,通过建立子弹药从稳态扫描至命中跑道目标过程的数学模型,运用Monte-Carlo法计算了末敏子弹药的命中概率,仿真结果表明:在一定参数取值条件下,子弹药敏感器定位精度对子弹药命中概率影响较小,敏感器识别概率和穿爆火箭弹密集度的影响稍大。研究结果为计算子弹药对跑道封锁效能奠定了基础,也为类似弹药命中概率仿真研究提供了有价值的参考。

Considering analysis of parameters of an anti-runway terminal-sensitive submunition, and by modeling the stable scanning to hitting runway, this paper calculated the hit probability of anti-runway terminal-sensitive submunition was calculation with Monte-Carlo method. The simulation result shows that the orientation precision of sensor has a little impact on hit probability, the identification probability and distribution of rockets influence more on hit probability for certain parameter value. The research result lays foundation for calculating interdiction effectiveness with runway, also provides a valuable reference for similar munition hit probability simulation.