侦察无人机作战效能取决于敌我双方的共同控制。为研究影响其作战效能的因素、作战失败过程及因素变化对作战失败的影响趋势,提出了作战效能分析与复合因素空间表征方法。首先研究了作战效能及其影响因素;随后从概念描述、拓扑抽象和数学计算三方面对无人机作战失败演化过程进行研究;提出了作战效能博弈分析方法并构建了复合因素空间。研究表明:作战失败演化过程可表征作战效能变化。概念描述可采用系统故障演化模型,构建无人机作战失败演化过程。拓扑抽象使用空间故障网络模型,得到作战失败过程网络拓扑图。数学计算通过特征函数建立了数学模型,可计算各事件发生概率分布。实例展示了分析流程,得到了作战失败过程中所有事件的发生概率分布。该方法从概念、拓扑、数学层面剖析无人机作战失败过程,构建复合因素空间表征敌我作战失败情况。最后说明了研究方法的一般性质,及存在的不足和解决方法。

The combat effectiveness of reconnaissance UAV depends on the joint control of both enemy and us. In order to study the factors that affect its combat effectiveness, the combat failure process and the influence trend of the factors change on the combat failure, the methods of combat effectiveness analysis and composite factor space characterization are proposed. Firstly, the combat effectiveness and its influencing factors are studied. Then, the evolution process of UAV combat failure is studied from concept description, topological abstraction and mathematical calculation. The game analysis method of combat effectiveness is put forward and the composite factor space is constructed. The research shows that the evolution process of combat failure can represent the change of combat effectiveness. The system failure evolution model can be used to construct the evolution process of UAV combat failure. The topology abstraction uses the space fault network model to obtain the network topology of the combat failure process. The mathematical model is established by the characteristic function, and the probability distribution of each event can be calculated. The example shows the process of analysis and obtains the probability distribution of all events in the combat failure process. This method analyzes the combat failure process of UAVs from the aspects of concept, topology, and mathematics, and constructs a composite factor space to represent the combat failure situations of both sides. Finally, the general properties of the research method are explained, as well as its existing shortcomings and solutions.