为研究机械元件受物理限制条件下的故障过程、原因及控制措施,提出了物理限制的机械元件故障概率模型。首先研究了装备中机械元件故障类型,其次给出了正态分布的故障概率模型和机械元件总故障概率模型,再次分析了影响因素重要性,最后建议了降低机械元件故障的措施并给出实例分析。研究表明物理限制下的机械元件失效包括疲劳、磨损、腐蚀、蠕变4大类13种故障模式。基于正态分布建立了故障概率积分表达式。机械元件总故障概率通过叠加13种故障概率表达式形成。断裂相关变量重要性最高,全局判据变量次之,磨损、蠕变和腐蚀相关变量重要性依次降低,共性变量影响最低。以“断裂优先、全局协同、渐进防控”原则制定了针对不同故障的措施。研究为装备可靠性分析、故障预测及安全设计提供新路径。

To study the failure process,causes,and control measures of mechanical components under physical constraints,a fault probability model for mechanical components considering physical constraints is proposed.First,the failure types of mechanical components in equipment are investigated.Second,a fault probability model based on the normal distribution and a total fault probability model for mechanical components are presented.Third,the importance of influencing factors is analyzed.Finally,measures to reduce the failure of mechanical components are suggested,and provide an example analysis.The research shows that the failures of mechanical components under physical constraints include 4 major categories (fatigue,wear,corrosion,and creep) with 13 failure modes.An integral expression for the fault probability is established based on the normal distribution.The total fault probability of a mechanical component is formed by superimposing the probability expressions of these 13 failures.The variables related to fracture are the most important,followed by the global criterion variables.The importance of variables related to wear,creep,and corrosion decreases in turn,and the influence of common variables is the lowest.Measures for different failures are formulated following the principle of “fracture priority,global coordination,and progressive prevention”.This research provides a new approach for equipment reliability analysis,fault prediction,and safety design.