In this paper, the probability calculation model that a programmable electronic fuse time bomb damages the target in air was set up; the mathematical modeling methods were used for calculating the probability that programmable electronic fuse time bomb damages the ARM missile. The main factors affecting the probability of damage were analyzed for the programmable elec-tronic time fuse post-bomb design to provide theoretical support and technical reserves. The calculation result shows the frontal at-tack has greater damage probability than the side attack; there is optimal combination between the damage probability and the voy-age. Therefore, relative velocity between bomb and target has greater impact on conditions damage probability than orientation of attacks, while the range changes from 1km to 2km, the probability of damage on the ARM missile is more than 0.4.