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Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance >

2024 , Vol. 44 >Issue 6: 28 - 36

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2024.06.004

The Vulnerability Analysis of UAVs Under Fragment Strikes Based on Monte Carlo Method

  • WANG Dayu 1 ,
  • GUO Lei 1 ,
  • SUN Zhichao 1 ,
  • HE Yuan 1 ,
  • WANG Chuanting 1 ,
  • HE Yong 1 ,
  • QIN Guangquan 2 ,
  • LI Yong 2
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  • 1 School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu,China
  • 2 Chang’an Wangjiang Industrial Group Limited Company, Chongqing 401120,China

Received date: 2024-09-19

  Online published: 2025-02-10

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Abstract

To investigate the damage effectiveness of low, slow and small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) under fragmentation strikes, an evaluation model is established to comprehensively assess the damage effectiveness of fragments against UAVs. Numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the damage probability of a single fragment impacting various UAV compartments under different initial velocities, diameters, and material conditions, followed by extensive shooting simulations using the Monte Carlo method, with thousands of iterations to ensure statistical robustness. The results indicate that the initial velocity, diameter, and material of the fragment significantly influence the damage probability. An increase in initial velocity and diameter notably enhances the damage probability; however, the effectiveness tends to saturate within the velocity range of 900~1 500 m/s and diameter range of 4~8 mm, showing diminishing returns beyond these thresholds. The use of multiple fragments significantly increases the damage probability, suggesting that an increase in the number of fragments leads to a substantial improvement in damage effectiveness, making the quantity of fragments a crucial factor in determining the overall damage outcomes. Based on these findings, selecting fragment diameters between 2 mm and 4 mm, initial velocities between 600 m/s and 900 m/s, and appropriate materials can optimize the design of fragmentation warheads, thereby significantly enhancing their damage effectiveness against UAVs. This study provides a scientific basis for the precise evaluation of UAV damage effectiveness, offering valuable insights for the development of more effective countermeasures and supporting informed decision-making in combat scenarios to ensure enhanced operational effectiveness and strategic advantages.

Key words： low slow and small UAV; damage effectiveness evaluation; Monte Carlo method; fragment strike; numerical simulation

Cite this article

WANG Dayu , GUO Lei , SUN Zhichao , HE Yuan , WANG Chuanting , HE Yong , QIN Guangquan , LI Yong . The Vulnerability Analysis of UAVs Under Fragment Strikes Based on Monte Carlo Method[J]. Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance, 2024 , 44(6) : 28 -36 . DOI: 10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2024.06.004

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