Based on comprehensive consideration of the constraint conditions including surface-to air interference and airborne weap-on attack regions, firstly the process that attack aircraft running in target was decomposed into two basic events, including ground target situating in active region of airborne radar, attack aircraft finding the target and preparing for the attack. Then the target ex-posed region calculation model under electronic interference, the side direction deviating distance model of attack aircraft, near boundary calculation model of airborne weapon attack regions and run-in target probability calculation model were established. Through an example, the main factors of model were analyzed. Finally, the curve charts of jamming power spectral density's effect on probability of run in target for attack aircraft were obtained.