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Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance >

2025 , Vol. 45 >Issue 6: 1326 - 1335

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2025.06.045

Academic article

Analysis of Fault Probability Model and Factor Importance of Mechanical Components Based on Physical Constraints

  • CUI Tiejun , 1, 2 ,
  • LI Shasha 1, 2
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  • 1 School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang 110159, Liaoning, China
  • 2 Liaoning Safety Engineering Industry School,Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang 110159,Liaoning, China

Received date: 2025-06-30

  Online published: 2026-01-24

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Abstract

To study the failure process,causes,and control measures of mechanical components under physical constraints,a fault probability model for mechanical components considering physical constraints is proposed.First,the failure types of mechanical components in equipment are investigated.Second,a fault probability model based on the normal distribution and a total fault probability model for mechanical components are presented.Third,the importance of influencing factors is analyzed.Finally,measures to reduce the failure of mechanical components are suggested,and provide an example analysis.The research shows that the failures of mechanical components under physical constraints include 4 major categories (fatigue,wear,corrosion,and creep) with 13 failure modes.An integral expression for the fault probability is established based on the normal distribution.The total fault probability of a mechanical component is formed by superimposing the probability expressions of these 13 failures.The variables related to fracture are the most important,followed by the global criterion variables.The importance of variables related to wear,creep,and corrosion decreases in turn,and the influence of common variables is the lowest.Measures for different failures are formulated following the principle of “fracture priority,global coordination,and progressive prevention”.This research provides a new approach for equipment reliability analysis,fault prediction,and safety design.

Key words： equipment safety; mechanical components; physical constraints; fault probability; influencing factors; factor importance

Cite this article

CUI Tiejun , LI Shasha . Analysis of Fault Probability Model and Factor Importance of Mechanical Components Based on Physical Constraints[J]. Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance, 2025 , 45(6) : 1326 -1335 . DOI: 10.15892/j.cnki.djzdxb.2025.06.045

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