The hitting point plays an important role on evaluating damage performance of ammunition. To better evaluate damage performance of terminal sensing ammunition, in this paper, a Monte-Carlo method is utilized to simulate the hitting point of terminal sensing ammunition. Meanwhile, the related parameters are also analyzed. The simulation results indicates that the disturb of parachute and the horizontal wind has great influence on the recognition rate of terminal sensing ammunition, the rolling angle and the distribution of EFP warhead are the main reasons for missing the target. The research results in this paper can provide valuable reference for the damage performance evaluation and improvement of terminal sensing ammunition.