WANG Dayu, GUO Lei, SUN Zhichao, HE Yuan, WANG Chuanting, HE Yong, QIN Guangquan, LI Yong
To investigate the damage effectiveness of low, slow and small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) under fragmentation strikes, an evaluation model is established to comprehensively assess the damage effectiveness of fragments against UAVs. Numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the damage probability of a single fragment impacting various UAV compartments under different initial velocities, diameters, and material conditions, followed by extensive shooting simulations using the Monte Carlo method, with thousands of iterations to ensure statistical robustness. The results indicate that the initial velocity, diameter, and material of the fragment significantly influence the damage probability. An increase in initial velocity and diameter notably enhances the damage probability; however, the effectiveness tends to saturate within the velocity range of 900~1 500 m/s and diameter range of 4~8 mm, showing diminishing returns beyond these thresholds. The use of multiple fragments significantly increases the damage probability, suggesting that an increase in the number of fragments leads to a substantial improvement in damage effectiveness, making the quantity of fragments a crucial factor in determining the overall damage outcomes. Based on these findings, selecting fragment diameters between 2 mm and 4 mm, initial velocities between 600 m/s and 900 m/s, and appropriate materials can optimize the design of fragmentation warheads, thereby significantly enhancing their damage effectiveness against UAVs. This study provides a scientific basis for the precise evaluation of UAV damage effectiveness, offering valuable insights for the development of more effective countermeasures and supporting informed decision-making in combat scenarios to ensure enhanced operational effectiveness and strategic advantages.