In order to get the reliable and real-time penetration probability for anti-ship missile, the paper took the warfare of anti-missile to warship’s solid defense system as the military background, adopting the adjoint technique, the model was built for anti-missile defense system of warship, and the paper put great emphasis on studying the attack-defense countermine course of anti-ship missile to ship-air missile, the analytic model of the penetration probability was ultimately gained for anti-ship missile. The arithmetic is not only capable of satisfying the needs of missile real time program but also can embody the influence of attack-defense situation,terminal maneuver tactic for anti-ship missile,performance of enemy warship’s weapon system and so on to anti-ship missile’s penetration efficiency.