Considering analysis of parameters of an anti-runway terminal-sensitive submunition, and by modeling the stable scanning to hitting runway, this paper calculated the hit probability of anti-runway terminal-sensitive submunition was calculation with Monte-Carlo method. The simulation result shows that the orientation precision of sensor has a little impact on hit probability, the identification probability and distribution of rockets influence more on hit probability for certain parameter value. The research result lays foundation for calculating interdiction effectiveness with runway, also provides a valuable reference for similar munition hit probability simulation.